Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2156 at 13:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2156 IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 4277 IAD 09:50 → LAS 11:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1764 United Flight history →	IAD 20:10	LAS 22:19	18%	5%	0.6%	77%
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 09:50	LAS 11:45	23%	7%	0.7%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	92%	81%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 09m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	6h 57m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON