Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3698 IAD 12:40 → LGA 14:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest UA 3682 IAD 22:05 → LGA 23:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3698 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:40	LGA 14:10	20%	6%	0.9%	68%
UA 3682 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:05	LGA 23:30	26%	7%	1.2%	58%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:19	LGA 09:48	18%	6%	2.9%	82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:15	LGA 18:42	23%	13%	13.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON