Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3528 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:55	MCI 14:45	9%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2057 United Flight history →	IAD 17:15	MCI 19:03	14%	7%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:39 → MCI 12:26UA 2159	6h 56m	100%	91%
United Details →	IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29UA 1484	5h 19m	98%	87%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561	7h 05m	100%	87%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	7h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 10:20 → MCI 11:46DL 1608	6h 46m	97%	85%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	3h 26m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	8h 45m	100%	85%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	3h 36m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa	9h 07m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498	46m Newark	EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	70%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON