Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 379 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 379 IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4355 IAD 19:18 → MCO 21:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 379 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MCO 11:08	11%	4%	15.5%	89%
UA 689 United Flight history →	IAD 22:33	MCO 01:01	14%	5%	17.2%	84%
UA 2206 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	MCO 14:58	17%	7%	17.0%	86%
UA 1101 United Flight history →	IAD 15:37	MCO 17:59	22%	9%	17.2%	62%
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	23%	9%	17.2%	71%
F9 4355 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 19:18	MCO 21:48	28%	15%	17.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON