tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1073 at 08:45, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1073 United Flight history → IAD 08:45 MIA 11:35 12% 4% 1.4% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 4h 57m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → MIA 13:37DL 2129 7h 37m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 28m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 38m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → IAD 05:03 → CLT 06:35AA 5054 · flown by PSA 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436 6h 34m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579 6h 28m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 3h 06m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 8h 47m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAD 09:20 → CLT 10:57AA 5219 · flown by PSA 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912 6h 18m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 58m Newark EWR 20:08 → MIA 23:26UA 1128 5h 44m 54% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON