Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2253 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	MSY 10:24	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2042 United Flight history →	IAD 20:02	MSY 21:49	14%	7%	6.0%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 37m	99%	89%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	1h 28m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273	8h 09m	100%	88%
United Details →	IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396	2h 38m Newark	EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468	7h 15m	99%	86%
United Details →	IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic	7h 18m	99%	85%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	3h 16m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	7h 44m	100%	84%
United Details →	IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → MSY 12:55UA 1850	7h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790	5h 14m	91%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → MSY 23:59AA 608	4h 37m	75%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON