tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 7h 55m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 9h 17m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 9h 07m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393 3h 16m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 12m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242 8h 31m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 46m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 8h 53m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 50m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → ONT 17:54UA 5613 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 75% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON