Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 IAD 08:30 → ORF 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2677 IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2112 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	ORF 09:39	6%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 2677 United Flight history →	IAD 22:35	ORF 23:44	14%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 6313 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 13:05	ORF 14:17	8%	5%	0.0%	92%
UA 4308 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:45	ORF 18:59	35%	13%	4.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON