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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → PBI 11:45DL 1527 5h 45m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAD 05:03 → CLT 06:35AA 5054 · flown by PSA 48m Charlotte CLT 07:23 → PBI 09:17AA 2278 4h 14m 87% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → PBI 15:50DL 838 7h 23m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 7h 05m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:33 → EWR 07:52UA 2147 1h 14m Newark EWR 09:06 → PBI 12:06UA 2018 5h 33m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 55m Detroit DTW 08:30 → PBI 11:30DL 2926 5h 30m 89% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 11:04 → PBI 12:58AA 2279 6h 25m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 3h 12m Newark EWR 13:07 → PBI 16:09UA 1797 7h 40m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764 4h 29m 75% 52%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 1h 09m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 5h 46m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON