tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 780 United Flight history → IAD 17:40 PDX 20:19 20% 6% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 9h 38m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 33m Chicago ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994 8h 28m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 51m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 26m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 9h 39m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 00m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 36m 92% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON