Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1938 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	PHX 19:46	17%	6%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	1h 01m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 04m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 43m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	9h 03m	99%	83%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	8h 55m	100%	83%
United Details →	IAD 06:33 → EWR 07:52UA 2147	3h 32m Newark	EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370	10h 06m	100%	83%
United Details →	IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225	7h 53m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	7h 57m	97%	83%
United Details →	IAD 07:00 → LAX 09:26UA 325	3h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 13:05 → PHX 14:42UA 5548 · flown by SkyWest	10h 42m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 16m Newark	EWR 20:26 → PHX 22:48UA 1814	8h 06m	68%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON