Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3548 IAD 08:20 → PWM 10:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2064 IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3548 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:20	PWM 10:07	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 3535 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:45	PWM 14:34	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 3651 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 17:30	PWM 19:27	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 2064 United Flight history →	IAD 22:10	PWM 23:51	15%	5%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON