Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1406 at 08:15, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1406 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	RSW 10:53	11%	3%	13.3%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 27m	96%	72%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	1h 20m Houston	IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361	7h 12m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	6h 12m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 08m	98%	68%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618	7h 19m	95%	68%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	59m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102	6h 29m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 11m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 23m	98%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON