Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1930 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1930 IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 201 IAD 19:53 → SAN 22:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1930 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	SAN 10:38	14%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2163 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SAN 15:03	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2054 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	SAN 20:23	24%	7%	0.6%	83%
AS 201 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 19:53	SAN 22:17	27%	6%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	51m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491	7h 21m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 38m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	7h 41m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON