tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Antonio on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1789 United Flight history → IAD 08:25 SAT 10:59 6% 3% 0.6% 94%
UA 1869 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 SAT 20:22 13% 5% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 7h 13m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 00m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 16m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 6h 09m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 43m Chicago ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12UA 490 7h 02m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 49m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 2h 25m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 7h 52m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 54m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 9h 14m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 6h 38m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON