Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2101 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2101 IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 737 IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2101 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	SEA 11:51	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1015 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:00	SEA 09:45	9%	3%	0.8%	79%
UA 2241 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	SEA 15:55	12%	5%	0.6%	86%
AS 409 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 06:03	SEA 08:48	13%	2%	0.7%	63%
AS 361 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 09:30	SEA 12:16	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 326 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SEA 20:46	21%	7%	0.6%	77%
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 18:14	SEA 21:09	31%	7%	0.7%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	96%	86%
United Details →	IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	8h 28m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON