tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2021 United Flight history → IAD 08:34 SJU 12:34 12% 3% 0.6% 85%
UA 2025 United Flight history → IAD 17:24 SJU 21:24 18% 7% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 22m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 8h 34m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 1h 21m Denver DEN 09:43 → SJU 17:38UA 1339 11h 08m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 3h 31m Houston IAH 23:56 → SJU 05:29 +1UA 1497 11h 30m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 24m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 12m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 12m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 2h 45m Chicago ORD 14:38 → SJU 20:34UA 695 10h 03m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:33 → EWR 07:52UA 2147 1h 54m Newark EWR 09:46 → SJU 13:45UA 1556 7h 12m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON