tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 432 Delta Flight history → IAD 07:15 SLC 09:54 8% 2% 0.6% 85%
UA 2410 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 SLC 20:46 18% 5% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 06m Houston IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:59UA 756 7h 29m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 28m Chicago ORD 08:55 → SLC 11:39UA 1972 7h 29m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 18m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 8h 43m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 07:00 → LAX 09:26UA 325 3h 29m Los Angeles LAX 12:55 → SLC 15:48UA 5371 · flown by SkyWest 10h 48m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684 2h 32m Los Angeles LAX 20:19 → SLC 23:11UA 5744 · flown by SkyWest 9h 56m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 7h 23m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 09m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 9h 07m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON