tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → IAD 17:55 SMF 20:40 16% 6% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 37m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 41m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 08m Denver DEN 11:30 → SMF 13:05UA 1415 9h 35m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 9h 09m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 21m Houston IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:07UA 2773 8h 37m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 9h 55m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 58m Denver DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:41UA 1208 10h 28m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON