tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 9h 21m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 51m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 13m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 8h 11m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 11h 15m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 41m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 9h 05m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 42m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 2h 29m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 9h 05m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 55m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 7h 37m 73% 60%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 7h 20m 70% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON