tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4425 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 09:00 STL 10:27 17% 14% 2.7% 83%
UA 4527 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:55 STL 19:26 27% 16% 1.1% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:33 → EWR 07:52UA 2147 2h 01m Newark EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic 6h 08m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 7h 12m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 5h 28m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 3h 13m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 7h 01m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700 7h 21m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 31m 92% 85%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717 6h 22m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 4h 36m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON