Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1443 at 08:15, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1443 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	STT 12:20	8%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	1h 13m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	9h 13m	100%	85%
American Details →	IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432	7h 15m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902	8h 23m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889	6h 53m	95%	75%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943	9h 57m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON