Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 683 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 683 IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2953 IAD 12:28 → TPA 14:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 683 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	TPA 11:32	8%	3%	17.1%	91%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	IAD 12:49	TPA 15:15	13%	5%	17.1%	86%
UA 1140 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	TPA 20:39	18%	7%	15.4%	75%
F9 2953 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:28	TPA 14:59	22%	9%	17.3%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON