tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:04, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2369 United Flight history → IAH 14:20 ANC 18:41 13% 4% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 05m Chicago ORD 09:04 → ANC 12:56UA 840 10h 52m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:02UA 2643 3h 18m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 11h 23m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 53m Denver DEN 07:40 → ANC 11:10UA 394 8h 55m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 3h 44m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594 12h 42m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886 3h 29m Newark EWR 15:28 → ANC 19:12UA 450 14h 52m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 3h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → ANC 23:20DL 2713 11h 59m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124 3h 41m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 13h 19m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409 3h 28m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 11h 41m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 17:39 → PHX 18:28AA 640 50m Phoenix PHX 19:18 → ANC 23:59AA 1981 9h 20m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON