Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5917 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:44	ASE 18:34	18%	8%	1.3%	80%
UA 5814 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 09:50	ASE 11:40	21%	8%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	58m Denver	DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest	4h 31m	95%	84%
American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:30 → ASE 10:01AA 6388 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	97%	80%
United Details →	IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:02UA 2643	3h 16m Denver	DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	100%	79%
United Details →	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	2h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 16:20 → ASE 19:31UA 5764 · flown by SkyWest	7h 58m	97%	79%
American Details →	IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → ASE 12:21AA 4912 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	98%	78%
United Details →	IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450	3h 59m Denver	DEN 15:07 → ASE 16:08UA 5773 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	100%	78%
United Details →	IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:29UA 2110	2h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 10:17 → ASE 13:38UA 4700 · flown by SkyWest	8h 38m	100%	78%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	3h 42m Denver	DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON