Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2016 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2016 IAH 07:35 → AUS 08:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2674 IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2016 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	AUS 08:39	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 1859 United Flight history →	IAH 12:05	AUS 13:12	17%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1823 United Flight history →	IAH 10:15	AUS 11:19	19%	6%	0.6%	79%
UA 1179 United Flight history →	IAH 22:15	AUS 23:12	23%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 2621 United Flight history →	IAH 20:18	AUS 21:25	24%	10%	0.8%	73%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	AUS 17:27	25%	10%	0.7%	70%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	IAH 18:50	AUS 19:57	26%	11%	0.8%	57%
UA 6118 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	AUS 15:29	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON