tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1680 at 18:17, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1680 United Flight history → IAH 18:17 BDL 22:59 18% 6% 0.6% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37UA 2643 9h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 5h 43m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 12m Dulles IAD 12:40 → BDL 14:06UA 632 5h 46m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 05m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 8h 20m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 1h 39m Dulles IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444 6h 24m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 11m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 11:51 → BDL 13:50AA 1448 6h 49m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 6h 17m 38% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON