Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2174 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2174 IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2165 IAH 16:20 → BNA 18:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2174 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BNA 09:47	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1318 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	BNA 14:02	13%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 1326 United Flight history →	IAH 20:35	BNA 22:42	17%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 2165 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	BNA 18:27	19%	6%	0.6%	49%
UA 6123 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	BNA 20:34	19%	12%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON