tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2015 at 18:05, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2015 United Flight history → IAH 18:05 BZN 20:39 16% 6% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 06m Denver DEN 07:53 → BZN 09:37UA 348 5h 22m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 40m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 31m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 27m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 5h 50m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 40m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 10h 03m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → BZN 10:47AA 1653 6h 45m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 10h 04m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409 3h 08m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 60% 54%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:41AS 241 48m Seattle SEA 11:29 → BZN 14:09AS 285 7h 09m 57% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON