Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5094 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:55	CHA 23:06	18%	7%	0.8%	68%
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 12:50	CHA 16:03	21%	8%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chattanooga is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737	5h 42m	99%	87%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet	7h 12m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:26 → CHA 15:17DL 3057	6h 12m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:40 → CHA 19:33DL 3150	6h 24m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → CHA 23:55DL 1059	6h 04m	97%	78%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont	5h 53m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → CHA 14:14DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	7h 44m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 17:02 → ORD 20:24AA 4426 · flown by Republic	50m Chicago	ORD 21:14 → CHA 00:06 +1AA 4511 · flown by Republic	6h 04m	75%	60%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	46m Atlanta	ATL 18:40 → CHA 19:33DL 3150	3h 55m	74%	60%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:10 → LGA 18:59DL 2088	51m New York	LGA 19:50 → CHA 22:22DL 5276 · flown by Endeavor	7h 12m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON