tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1469 at 18:37, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1469 United Flight history → IAH 18:37 CHS 22:15 25% 8% 0.8% 61%
UA 6295 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:15 CHS 16:02 20% 6% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:35 → CHS 14:06UA 3646 · flown by Republic 8h 02m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 20m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 03m Denver DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003 8h 59m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36UA 1797 1h 34m Newark EWR 12:10 → CHS 14:16UA 1760 7h 15m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 07m Dulles IAD 12:35 → CHS 14:27UA 3487 · flown by Republic 6h 07m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CHS 14:15DL 2463 6h 45m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 6h 48m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 5h 42m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 11:50 → JFK 16:29B6 1382 56m New York JFK 17:25 → CHS 19:52B6 2473 7h 02m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON