Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 544 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 544 IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 744 IAH 18:05 → CLE 21:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 544 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	CLE 11:14	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1934 United Flight history →	IAH 14:35	CLE 18:30	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 744 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	CLE 21:59	18%	6%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON