Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2011 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2011 IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2864 IAH 18:12 → CLT 21:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2011 American Flight history →	IAH 06:01	CLT 09:43	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 3162 American Flight history →	IAH 08:54	CLT 12:30	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	IAH 10:18	CLT 13:56	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1919 American Flight history →	IAH 15:06	CLT 18:51	16%	6%	0.7%	58%
F9 2396 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 09:09	CLT 12:53	23%	6%	0.9%	81%
AA 1920 American Flight history →	IAH 17:26	CLT 21:10	23%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 2864 United Flight history →	IAH 18:12	CLT 21:59	25%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 3988 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	CLT 11:02	11%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 6197 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	CLT 16:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON