Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2364 IAH 12:25 → CVG 15:57 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 2069 IAH 20:13 → CVG 23:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2364 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	CVG 15:57	14%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 2069 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	CVG 23:44	17%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 6312 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:30	CVG 10:59	11%	2%	1.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON