Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 44m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 58m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 47m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 45m	92%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON