Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2047 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2047 IAH 07:46 → DCA 11:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 5333 IAH 17:00 → DCA 21:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2047 United Flight history →	IAH 07:46	DCA 11:56	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
AA 5247 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 06:43	DCA 10:59	9%	3%	1.0%	94%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	DCA 13:57	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	16%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	17%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 5526 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 10:48	DCA 15:03	18%	6%	1.2%	62%
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	18%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	20%	7%	0.6%	66%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	IAH 16:55	DCA 21:06	21%	8%	0.6%	61%
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 17:00	DCA 21:16	25%	10%	1.5%	38%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	56m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	4h 42m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON