tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1780 at 20:12, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1780 United Flight history → IAH 20:12 DSM 22:35 18% 6% 0.7% 77%
UA 6166 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 11:55 DSM 14:10 16% 5% 1.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 7h 54m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 03m Denver DEN 09:50 → DSM 12:47UA 5211 · flown by SkyWest 7h 32m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106 2h 22m Chicago ORD 11:29 → DSM 13:04AA 4676 · flown by Republic 6h 51m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 54m Chicago ORD 12:59 → DSM 14:27UA 1781 8h 17m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:11 → DSM 09:11AA 3495 · flown by Envoy 4h 09m 92% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 7h 45m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 11m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 11:31 → DSM 12:56AA 1763 6h 55m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 19:49 → DFW 21:15AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:59AA 1371 4h 10m 62% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON