Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1389 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1389 IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1958 IAH 14:54 → DTW 18:49 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1389 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:30	DTW 09:18	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	IAH 11:32	DTW 15:20	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 2237 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DTW 23:44	19%	7%	0.7%	61%
DL 1865 Delta Flight history →	IAH 15:27	DTW 19:15	19%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 1529 Delta Flight history →	IAH 19:55	DTW 23:44	22%	6%	0.7%	70%
F9 1958 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:54	DTW 18:49	27%	9%	0.8%	69%
UA 4064 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:45	DTW 13:42	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
UA 6131 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 13:58	DTW 17:59	11%	3%	0.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON