Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 700 IAH 16:47 → EWR 21:29 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	EWR 14:27	16%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	17%	7%	0.7%	72%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	17%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	19%	9%	0.7%	74%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	21%	7%	0.9%	76%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	26%	8%	0.9%	66%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	27%	10%	0.7%	59%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	28%	11%	0.8%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	52m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	5h 11m	83%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON