Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2261 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–48%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	FLL 11:22	12%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 2234 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	FLL 13:47	16%	5%	0.8%	81%
UA 1706 United Flight history →	IAH 12:06	FLL 15:53	19%	6%	0.8%	64%
UA 462 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	FLL 18:07	22%	7%	0.9%	84%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	26%	8%	2.7%	77%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	26%	7%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	27%	7%	1.2%	30%
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	29%	9%	1.5%	62%
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	41%	13%	1.3%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	48%	18%	3.3%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON