tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 05:22, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 253 United Flight history → IAH 10:10 HNL 13:26 21% 6% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:30 → HNL 13:32UA 219 13h 28m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 40m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 37m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:22 → SFO 07:22UA 487 1h 58m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 11h 21m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 3h 57m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 13h 45m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:29UA 2110 3h 36m Los Angeles LAX 11:05 → HNL 13:56UA 1224 12h 56m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 14:54 → LAX 16:27UA 1951 2h 18m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → HNL 21:38UA 2390 11h 44m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 55m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 11h 43m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON