Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1549 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1549 IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1373 IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 2775 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	IAD 00:31	17%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	17%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	19%	6%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON