Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5282 IAH 12:10 → ICT 14:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5882 IAH 18:16 → ICT 20:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5282 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 12:10	ICT 14:10	18%	7%	0.6%	81%
OO 5882 SkyWest	IAH 18:16	ICT 20:12	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 4358 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:46	ICT 11:38	18%	8%	0.0%	82%
UA 4987 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	ICT 16:16	20%	12%	2.4%	80%
UA 4855 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:16	ICT 20:12	25%	7%	0.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON