tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1663 at 18:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1663 United Flight history → IAH 18:10 JAC 20:36 19% 5% 0.6% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 18m Denver DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:34UA 1413 5h 19m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 06m Chicago ORD 09:05 → JAC 11:35UA 307 7h 31m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:02UA 2643 3h 13m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 7h 16m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 40m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 3h 50m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 7h 55m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:29UA 2110 2h 59m Los Angeles LAX 10:28 → JAC 13:48UA 2110 8h 48m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 18:10 → JAC 21:30UA 1958 9h 32m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON