Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:50	JFK 16:29	24%	9%	0.8%	50%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	39%	15%	1.2%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 40m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	7h 24m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 30m	99%	84%
American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	1h 53m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → JFK 14:39AA 4350 · flown by Republic	7h 26m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	56m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 28m	94%	83%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:45 → JFK 13:47AA 2812	6h 46m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	10h 17m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 20m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 11:20 → MIA 15:01AA 1918	1h 02m Miami	MIA 16:03 → JFK 19:15AA 1202	6h 55m	72%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON