Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1264 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1264 IAH 07:20 → LAS 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1965 IAH 20:43 → LAS 21:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1264 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAS 08:35	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LAS 13:13	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	IAH 10:55	LAS 12:14	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1971 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LAS 15:37	17%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 17:33	LAS 18:51	23%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	IAH 18:39	LAS 19:57	24%	9%	0.7%	79%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	LAS 21:23	25%	8%	0.7%	66%
F9 4131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:17	LAS 14:29	27%	11%	1.0%	74%
F9 1965 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:43	LAS 21:58	39%	12%	1.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON