Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1417 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1417 IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2783 IAH 18:31 → LGA 23:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 2133 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	LGA 12:40	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	IAH 10:50	LGA 15:32	17%	6%	0.8%	82%
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	20%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	24%	7%	0.6%	66%
DL 2088 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:10	LGA 18:59	25%	8%	0.8%	73%
UA 2857 United Flight history →	IAH 17:15	LGA 21:59	27%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 2943 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:35	LGA 23:20	27%	9%	1.1%	60%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LGA 19:04	29%	10%	0.6%	69%
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	32%	12%	0.7%	61%
UA 2783 United Flight history →	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:14	32%	10%	0.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON