Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5321 IAH 11:55 → LIT 13:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 5340 IAH 14:20 → LIT 15:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5321 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LIT 13:31	15%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 5340 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LIT 15:58	16%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 4371 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:40	LIT 11:13	13%	7%	2.3%	87%
UA 6150 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	LIT 20:01	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
UA 4296 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:10	LIT 21:47	28%	8%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON