Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2236 at 20:13, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2236 IAH 20:13 → MAF 21:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2236 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	MAF 21:48	19%	8%	0.7%	67%
UA 6263 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:20	MAF 08:52	11%	3%	0.4%	89%
UA 6186 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:35	MAF 11:07	11%	2%	1.3%	89%
UA 6233 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:35	MAF 18:15	14%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 6322 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	MAF 16:15	15%	6%	1.3%	85%
UA 6338 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	MAF 13:34	15%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 6276 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 22:04	MAF 23:44	19%	9%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON