Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2266 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2266 IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:03 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1027 IAH 20:25 → MCI 22:31 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2266 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	MCI 10:03	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
UA 1027 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	MCI 22:31	19%	8%	0.6%	55%
UA 6152 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	MCI 14:15	13%	4%	1.5%	87%
UA 3987 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	MCI 16:47	14%	5%	0.4%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON